2025 Hurricane Season is Around the Corner

The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season officially begins on June 1. However, we see peak hurricane season from mid-August to mid-October, with the peak date of September 10.

Each year, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) releases its official North Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook, highlighting the predicted number of storms we will likely see in the Atlantic based on the current and suspected weather factors that will either increase or decrease the potential for an active or inactive tropical season.

There are other companies and even universities now that issue their forecasts using their scientific evidence and knowledge. While all of them vary slightly, generally, they seem to be favorable towards either direction. We will always recommend the NOAA forecast to be the most accurate, as this is the official forecasting organization.

Hurricane Criteria Overview

Before we dive into this season's outlooks and updates, it's good to level set and go back to basics with identifying the tropical system categories. Tropical systems go through various phases and either progress very slowly, if at all, or very rapidly, which is often referred to as rapid intensification. Let’s identify the phases of development:

• Tropical depression: A tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 38 miles per hour (33 knots) or less.
• Tropical storm: A tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 39–73 miles per hour (34 to 63 knots).
• Hurricane: A tropical cyclone with minimum sustained winds of 74 miles per hour (64 knots) or higher. It will be labeled as Category 1 or 2 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
• Major Hurricane: A tropical cyclone with minimum sustained winds of 111 miles per hour (96 knots) or higher, corresponding to a Category 3, 4, or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

Development of Hurricanes

Various atmospheric conditions impact the development of hurricanes, and some conditions decrease the potential of hurricanes to develop. One of the biggest impacts on the development of hurricanes is ocean water temperatures. Hurricanes are giant heat engines that draw energy from the ocean’s surface. As the ocean increases its average temperature, we have a greater likelihood of more—and even stronger—hurricanes developing.

Historically, we have tracked the sea surface temperature anomaly to identify year-over-year trends. Last year, we saw record warmth. Looking at the North Atlantic areas, as of now, this year has been slightly below last year's averages at this time of year (about 1.3°C). Looking at the Gulf of Mexico, however, we are at the same temperature as last year as of May 3, 2025.

Another key factor to determine potential seasonal hurricane impacts is the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Historically, El Niño causes a wind shear that reduces the development of tropical storms as the winds in the upper levels of the atmosphere tear storms apart. Storms that do develop tend to be what we call “fish storms,” meaning they will more than likely turn their course in the open waters and remain in open waters until he fazes out.

When we see the opposite, La Niña, we won’t have that wind shear in place, so hurricanes can develop more easily. Also, we will often see them more likely to continue in a line toward land, unless a pressure system coming across the country overpowers the hurricane and makes it turn.

This season, we are expecting neither of these, so we are in what is called ENSO neutral.  However, ENSO neutral mimics the La Niña for the most part, so we will see less wind shear and average to warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures. The last time we saw a neutral ENSO for hurricane season was in 2019, which started slow but then picked up in hurricane activity due to the warming of the Atlantic waters. In 2019, the most notable hurricanes were Dorian and Humberto, both major hurricanes.

To Sum it All Up

With all the information mentioned above, forecasters are favoring another active hurricane season, though maybe not as active as 2024. The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season is projected to have an Accumulated Cyclone Energy value of about 125 percent of the long-term average (1991–2020). This suggests a higher level of overall tropical cyclone activity compared to a typical season. Also notable in the forecasts is that the probability of a major hurricane (Category 3 or higher) making landfall along the entire U.S. coastline is estimated to be 51 percent, which is above the historical average of 43 percent.

What Can I Do Now?

We always stress the importance of being prepared. Continue to monitor the forecasts from trusted sources and be in the know about what is developing in the open waters. Even though it may be thousands of miles away and a week away from any impact, it does not mean you should not be at least aware of it. We have many indicators predicting a very active season. Tropical systems can affect us even if they are outside of our areas. We have seen historically that we may rely on supplies coming from an area that tropical systems have directly impacted, and as a result, you may face supply chain issues.

Also, prepare yourself personally by ensuring that you and your staff are ready at home. Ready.gov is a great resource for identifying important items to have at home to prepare for the potential impacts of tropical systems. We in the northeast know we are not exempt from tropical weather. So, although it is rare to have a direct hit here or in a neighboring state, we should still prepare ourselves and be situationally aware.

 

Author: Charles (CJ) Sabo, MPH, CHEP, EMT-B, HAP manager, emergency management

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